#independent #notmywar #on #russia #generals #shuffle
.@peace .@nato .@ukraine .@otan .@msc @profklausschwab .@profklausschwab .@nato @otan @nato @peace .@us_stratcom @us_stratcom .@bbcr4 .@bbcradio4 .@pacificsubs @pacificsubs .@ussocom @ussocom .@gchq .@nsagov .@odnigov .@atom .@iaeaorg .@energy .@ukraine .@rosatom .@rosatomglobal .@kremlinrussia .@kremlinrussia_e .@potus @potus .@vp @vp .@trt
.@nato @otan .@snowden
.@msc @msc
.@eu_commission @eu_commission .@eucouncil @eucouncil .@euparl_en @euparl_dk .@poland .@gchq .@nsagov .@rosatom
.@joebiden .@gop .@dnc
itis domestic cleansening with trusted persons in power
#keypoinrt the heavy losses bite the mil
which endangers putin rule
#reframed russian shark mitigation with severe causes inthefield
#independent #notmywar #on #china #and #map_whole_ism #and #putin
#china #s #xi c o u l d and should
r e f l e c t to putin how china estimates russias domestic internal strability in relation tothe ukraine war
if #china wants a stable #russia under putin
because
#keypoint
the bill of russian losses comes served to putin after the war and nothing but russias interests grown extended burt u n t i l then if amillion nato shells kill toomany russians
/////
my best independent advice to chinese geostrategy is : watch how your soft dominance strategy conflicts with russias cage rattling and informal ruler networks igniting conflicts to be needed and foremost
#keypoint how the usa anticipates a war with china over #taiwan within 4years
because itmeans drift into that
#reframed all your efforts are political weather related
with less and less possible crediblecounterparts toimplement deconflicting communications will
it is a
very very very dangerous drift
that it is a relatively static cold war of asia may turn out as bonus afterall
no war until you really want one despite facesaving quirks
#taiwan is the last trusted spot of the west for the chances in china. that is its value. but after pledge of mil defense any ambiguity is over and mil adventures among nuclear powers are i d i o t i c
letalone for map wholeism #map_whole_ism
////
#independent #notmywar #on #charkiv
isuspected the main offensives would pragmatically occur where russias apc s get to regularly
meh..
#independent #on #putin #ww2 #paradespeech
surrounded by sharks internally
in ww2 a second front stopped russias dying with a western normandy landing within months russian dying stopped.
in japan however
running in white bedsheet after the frirst nuclearbomb west required even a second
asia powerdistance is a different game intheir colonial monstrosities ww2
////
russian in ww2 was not a choice of russia vs west
#keypoint
it was west a n d russia vs nazi enslaved europe
nazi conquered enslaved europe
a
n
d
#keypoint
russia died in 20million lives
germans in 10millionlives
the russian front the german doom threat in oneof the
w o r s t dictatorships europe ever had
nothing of that is a good parallel to today
putin is
endangered by his own russia now because
w
a
y
#keypoint
too many died
and russia may not be so kind to him unless he is p e a c e n o w adequate tothe military
////
#independent #on #russia #diplo #ukraine
itr is #critical to trace precisely (!)how deep russia s control over ukraine was as near foreign land abroad of russia
and p r e c i s e l y who tinkered with right this. such as color revolutions tools
and the diplo path about howmuchof this needs rtobe restored
youmayfind how it conrtradicts nato membership
or:
did
now
w
a
y
way
way
waytoomuch happen
///
#hypothesis : when an old network leadership got dismissed, and these would try to make fires to be needed: would they humiliate putin how
without apologising a dictator
how would who have humiliated russia where to make fire
itis a
v
e
r
y
bold speculation
a hypothesis
hui whats in that cloud of thunderstorms scan faraway
///
#independent #on #b21 #f35 #f22
i even wonder if the jews even got through to iran with f35 as they anticipated or ifthey had problems hmmmmmmmm itmaynever be public
dothe iranis have deployed lidar systems ?
////
iwonder how #lockheedmartin #northropgrumman #boeingdefense solved #lidar s tracking trhruster combustion exhaust gases and dust letalone skin reflections with 3beams theyget problems?
oh. german tanks in moscow us tanks in moscow as trophy are p o w e r f u l images
#independent #notmywar #on #theobvious
while it was early on obvious that russia willbe northkorea_n_ised t o d a y it is obvious that
#keypoint noone wants wars principally noteven among global south and potential biggerglobe than west
it limits the layer of ice over the lake the russians skate it limits the twistjumps in rattling cages
#independent #notmywar #on #wmd #in #ukraine
when russia creeps into using wmd for russias glory in a criminal war
who wants to agree and condone and support that
makes less and less neutral and more and more biased
with wmd criminal wars become more criminal and more serious what that even means
especially with the afterwards
#independent #notmywar #on #airdefense
the less highly complex radars canbe deployed themore dirtcheap made effective with systemintegration and lidar s
themore a numbers count of interceptables themore laser and electronic effect systems matter.
#reframed itis hardtotell how a special microwave pod can destroy lowtech inbound at which rate range and surviveability of own assets andor a laser pod ground or airborne
interceptability of hightech requires hightech
#independent #notmywar #on #airdefense #strategies
whilethereis no shortcut around some basic principles of layered defense the economical aspect is critical as the against who/what while usually overcoming these is sneak or overwhealm
when itisvast terrain the lessyouare present with variable mobility themore it requires ranged systems themore uneconomical .
themore dispersed shortrangesystems themore one specific type of threat theyare only effective agaist
#keypoint highlymobile airborne surviveable and effective systems with multiple costeffective missile or gunnery options against lowvalue assets integrated in layered dispersed
and preventrive counterstrikes the sooner not materialised not launcheable effectively the morecosteffective defense which systems willcause biggest problems highestpriority
the dynamic shifting to overwhealm dirtcheap systems to noninterceptable leads to variable interceptor payload options and sensor integration
#keypoint
a game of targetconflicts in dynamic change
but if a critical element like surviveable airmobility or atechnology is missing itbecomes alot more difficult
soviets manysmallairports quick shortrange iR systems interceptors maynot be feasible leading to inferiority on ranged systems duetolackof computing
#independent #notmywar #on #taurus
iwould use taurus as sead tomake cas surviveable and for a grand depot hunt just to find itis overrated because
limited firepower total firepower limited
maybe even against remining operations when counteroffensives along terrain
strategic targets sealing off supplies of krim and such takeaway of adversary cas
russia overestimates the effects of these their biggerproblem is not changing the tactic once no tank gets through no apc survives butr ukraine gets serious artilleryshell with precise targetting
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #war #jews_vs_russia
the jews absolutely donot seem to understand russia whenthey hope on a frozen conflict
they didnot understand russia whenthey chopped out russian value generation the only there is and was
they didnot understand how west does what they want in russias gardens and how it constatly humiliates besides security zone shitballs
itis a criminal war lastresort delayed with a strong oilprice to enable todowhat they allalong neeeeed as necessity but couldnot
then russia as middlepower rawmaterials exporter didnot matter until criminal wars itis a criminal war.
the worst mistake is the assumption in allofthis a frozen conflict secured with nato membership that is what it is drifting to and aslong as mil facts making works that will happen another mistake
nothing gained there is worth all this shit
ispeculate on somethings
ispeakformyself
ihavenostakeorinterestinthatwar
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #war
idonot know what west thinks but heavy overwhealming artillery and tanks airborne kill is what won earlier wars
inmodern theatre heavy effective and foremost surviveable cas with high sortie rates no artillery and mining system survives long nowhere to hide
instead it seems the russians do that and ukraine can barely stop it
the drone systems are more terror systems than initiative changing unless they are sensors for concentrated firepower
tactically i would have picked counteroffensives only by nonskirmish depot hunt where surviveability of the assault is enabled foremost cas covered
the russians need peace before west fields a millon artilleryshells aimed with western sensors and russian wave after wave after wave doctrine the answer tothat
////
#independent #notmywar #on #putin #realism
#keypoint how a c h i e v a b l e
was and isthe goal of a european security situation altered more in favour of russia
letalone with which tools
besides making a subsidy package for western mildef sector after terror wars
and western instability rattled used : making west problems with all its betrayed and flawed parts sufficient plus tossing amillion soldiers into doom to change facts on the ground
while a
s m a l l e r actor incontrary to usa china where usa feels at war with china for years and
#keypoint
plans for a war within 4years with china
while china still thinks it can dirtydominance displace west and onthe meanwhile quest back what it thinks it owns
it is a path of
fire and nothing
b
u
t
fire
////
#independent #notmywar #on #putin
putin stabilised russia and madeit relevant then k e p t it relevant as bad actor ratting west whereverpossible then the mistake the last resort option long delayed all in war now killing amillion russians
occasionally it seemed like putin vs jews turned russia vs jews until nato had to take over the collossal mess after initial few month of ukraine campaign war
ispeculate on somethings
ispeakformyself
ihavenostakeorinterestinthatmess war
////
#independent #notmywar #on #putin #fate
putin s fate is decided a f t e r the war based on the loss gain for russia s interest
where the value of a russian life may be viewed differently than it is assumed today
#keypoint
the realistic threshold howmany russians dead vs which gained now that west gains traction in mildef spending and supplies to ukraine leads to
where is the stop
at some point no intel trick can save putin above a certain threshold already surrounded by sharks likely
the only point tothe west is
#keypoint
bloodwar contintent retriggered with imperialism nationalism shitballs about lets redraw borders and sell eachothers small nations then for our imperial gain
why would west viciously renounce that?
but not keep idiocy from messing with that a n y d a y
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #russia #war
howmuch are the supply routes to the russian soldiers under attack suspecting main target point by ukraine
whichmeans the troopsize is a heavy liability burden with problems to supply them 300km from moscow
#keypoint
the depot filling a sign of this critical flaw or a sign of projected strength
hereis no info especially
#keypoint which types of supplies maynot get through
andor are stored back
suspected apc s and principally supply mobility
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #israel #striking #iran
did the iranis just lose pilots around isfahan like flies orwere no airassets hit
that center iran isfahan has been hit means a lack of range of forcemultiplying stealth airborne systems and that nonstealthy more ranged systems may actually not
even
have
gotten
close
and or close enough
if ranged systems nonstealthy f15 did this irans airdefense is weak
if a more comprehensive strike with stealthy and ranged systems was planned but only stealthy went through itis a stronger irani air defense
either case i wouldnot have endangered my pilots deep into enemy territory for semisymbolic strikes as mission goals
it seems parts of adding tothe nuclear program were hit and not shxitty drone shed s
ispeakformyself
ispeculate ihavenostakeinthatmess
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #glidebombs
the handlingofthese isnot to intercept them but to freehunt the carriers with an airforce
russia figuredout that between forcemultiplier artillery and sucky drones
flying a highvelocity bow and let the bomb glide extended 200miles is the perfect balance between firepower and cost
oncemore the lack of specific things of airpower backfired on ukraine.
sam systems defending these 200miles from the carriers means only the jdam s mayget a booster or a higher droplaunch velocity for a littlemore range but requires sophisticated longrange sam systems minimum
the sortie rate and payload numbers decide how effective these glidebombs are
and it seems ukraine has severe problems with them andor theyhave noway to take on the carriers
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #russia
russia the people and country that absolutely donot want war that they must and then try to must whattheymust until they mustnot anylonger but someone has to stop the dyingthis.politically itis force an advantageous security standing of russia with zones of succumb as bufferzones and hardball while they can all in and all in fromthe west means another 500k dead russians aheadminimum depending how this is enforced b e f o r e thenext load of arms and conflict the political leadership may ormaynot survive
/////
#independent #on #iran #strikes #on #israel
#keypoint #iran is in “dont hurt me anymore” : deter further agression mode. fatalistic. foreverfeud thenorm anyway. #israel went in vicious hamaz terror mode take down a l l near it onit about it wherever they are went a tick too far. #all are clowns pushing
#digression #on #israels #growth
#keypoint the fragile socioeconomic basis of the us is with all trickery of the dollar hegemony set to barely manage nominal excess debt while the (!)abilities are critically overextended which is handled with burning nationalism which friends and allies percieve as utter lack of reliability. but the basis is not only the handling of populism but the socioeconomic basis which carries all and its critical tweaks to suchasthedollarhegemonyoverextended us with fragile socioeconomics and usually dirty secretive twists and tweaks weaseld something on for another decade and another#keypoint the reliability of the usa is not in that question of what friends assume it is but inthe long passed brink of overexcerted socioeconomic basis ofitalland (!)what fixes this ///
#onisraelattacksfatalistic hardmindtemplated terrorcommandos levered out complete layers of israels basis of security the realm segragation and after this occured ruthless monstrosity after ruthless monstrosity with heavy foot reaction in shock and terrorthe solution there on besides exterminating them wherever they areistomake no realm possiblethat uncontrolled to ever be able to stage such an act#keypointbut the tip of the horror is fatalistic hardminded terror commando aimed at the realmsegragation as basis of securityhow starving toddlers is not helping any cause but how hypocritical those that expend these toddlers gladly use t h a t then too against the jews#keypointis it an israeli security situation the israelis made the israelis get the blame with all sympathy for the suffering of the hostagesbut when the other toddlers are harmed in a situation them causethen mixed with sleazy sleazy sleazy internal politics like radicalism terrorises eachother but ruling with them and any friend to aid a solution for themess feels like a fool at some point israel becomes quickly lonelythe plan now is likely a l o c a l i t y security setup where the…r e a l m s e g r a g a t i o nislike beforethenbut..aehb e t t e r . this time.so this. aeh cannot ever happen again then.while toddlers starve and hostages die and total monsters play the victim gladly expend their toddlersyou need secular sense back inthe matter anything spiritual outofthe solution of the mess and security paramount////declinated further itmaybe problematic to existential if isolationistic and restrospective only forms #israel but the world secular and technocratic /////#independent #notmywar #on #irani #strikes #on #israel#reframed the hard assault on iran leading tothis e x t r e m e strike onisrael is #israel averted more seriousdamage with good friends. but by causality and effect itisone more questionable hardwingpolicy. iits not a victory itis a dancing on fragile consequences averted worse/////iran had in reserve its strike option to attack israel if it ever had to. iran likely adapted this strikeoption to break through the us likely learned from ukraine and learned likely intel based iran #keypointwouldoverturn israels defenseswhich lead to ane f f e c t i v e areal defense coalition as consequencethis means that israel taking on irani interests was very severe that iran chose this extreme optionbut the effectivity of deflecting this covers fragility of defense without coalitionsisrael s rightwing cluster likely follows a plan of a specifically modified gaza place likely for defensability of israel and nothing else while letting the civilpopulation suffer is not being nice to the murderous enemytotheworld itis not literally their own yard
/////
#on #ukraine
ukraine should pick weapons systems based initiatives with comparative advantage thatmatters
vs
the initiative on itself mitigated with system comparative advantages
but itis not about no householding with energy to initiatives
theproblem of russia is that meager supplies to ukraine killed halfamillion russians
and now besides starting long term supplies the quick solutions seems tobe ukraine nato membership
to save burdens and costs for future ukraine
#keypoint they need peace this war is criminal and a mistake of russia westis hypocritical and unreliable but extra exploitive and still isbetter withsome autonomy than russias zone of succumb nonexistence of ukraine. another russianmistake
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #russia #frontline #horrors
i amglad idonot have to take butchergeneral decisions
and would centered all operationally and strategically around where
#keypoint
the large number of soft troops becomes a liability a burden
the immobility becomes a burden a drawback
the removal of opponent forcemultipliers while utilisation of own forcemultipliers
and all supportsystems that mitigate own forcemultipliers and mobility
this along vast frontlines lead to the strategy of effective surviveable highsortierate cas with and without breakout mobility for longrange precision firepower concentration
where mining miners mitigate this and artillery are stoplocks
and drones sensors
instead it seems they use drones as window of opportunity throw anything something at the enemy cause somelosses and no utilisation of sensor fusion for a battletactic for initiative
i speakformyself
i speculate
i haveno stake or interest inthis horror
ihave compassion witht he lives there
and some sympathy for the raided ukraine because itis a criminal mistake war because someone tried to conquer ukraine away from russia but in decisions of the late 90s early 2000s i suspect
the russian losses are a precise result of all in backtothewall handle things with violence towards which goal all in
while west uses the mess to unite west and eventually keep an agricultural colony or part as gain andthen try to secure this
ie a half russian country integrated into nato
against russias will
200km or miles from moscow
and west
a
l
w
a
y
s
in love with
kragnoshnieh
and malkrushnah the pearl of aeh
aeh
the aeh
k a s p i a n seas
////
the thinking mistake is everyone must take sides and that isjust not the case. no cause to. .@all @world @bbc_whys letalone on unknown objects
thereis some sympathy with the raided ukraine but itis an unknown land unknown mess ispeak formyselfispeculateihave no stake or interest inthat mess
*******
poor russians they must. and they will
poor ukrainians they will. and they must
*******
which layers of civilisation b e f o r e the warmess did fail
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #russia_ukraine #ukraine_russia #frontlines
with western ammo supplies russia m u s t change tactics or take w
o
r
s
e
losses
while
ukraine with its stoplock tactic based on artillerysystem overrun by cannonfutter is a weak hand already.
what a monstrosity war is what a criminal mistake this war is
operationally the breach on spots on long frontlines towards strategic targets is a nobrainer but strategically the problem is
#keypoint
not undercut supplies from moscow 200 250km or miles away.
strategically poke into frontlines sucks compared to
#keypoint
undercutsupplies and troops where the s i z e of the cannonfuttered souls becomes a l i a b i l i t y and speed inflexibility disadvantage
#disclosure:
independent on the subject
independent onthe topic
i speak formyself
ispeculate
ihaveno stake inthis war or mess
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #nato
.@law @law .@harvard_law @scotusblog @scotus .@scotus.@eu_commission .@euparl_en @euparl_dk @eucouncil
donot make parallel mil to nato but use nato trust to unify and streamlinesimpleprincipally deployment mistrust is the core issue but evenmore the distribution of ressources to the own secrecy and tech this leads to reliability of ressources ofthefirmsand e v e n t u a l l y cultural lines francophile anglophile germanophile integration of procurement at worst but more important nato can do this better#independent #notmywar #on #windfallprofits #of #russiajudicially the justification of without having worked for profits is flimsy to false all systems are based on semi criminal levers and speculation.foremost#keypoint they offset opportunity cost against the lock because opportunity costs missed due to locks are as valid tradeoff to interest gain
///
#independent #notmywar #on #russia #control #and #politics
#path #to #peace #why
it must be understood that the war is a managed catastrophy for russia but to putin itis the l a s t and still
f e a s i b l e option
e n f o r c e d
all in
with russias ability to suffer
assumed a 1950s russia but is instead
unstable and putin surrounded by sharks barely quelled for now
and this consumes population which is then in the logic of a f t e r m a t h : after the effective all in utmost necessity for a violent solution: birthprograms
there is some inflexibility of higher age but the c o r e of the issue is the
#keypoint why all in backtothewall violence as the last utmost all in sacrifice towards which all in goal about:
tied the presidency dictatorship onthe outcomes too
surrounded and someone conquers ukraine away too donbas heavyindustries to keep is an all in must thatsforsure
#keypoint
but this violence as solution all in backtothewalltowards what forwhat is critical for which negotiations : mitigation of losses endofconflict t o w a r d s w h a t ifnot then violence option on
all in backtothewall utmost suffering russia until he is gone or sth changes towhat: success orfail
sixteen f16 are a joke ok ok ok not a joke but maybe alittlebit of a joke depend s
how surviveable
effective and highsortierate itis
the campaignwouldrequire
200 250jets with superior effectivity surviveability andhighsortierates
////
isuspected the only thing that l e a s t cheated the population in all oligarchic cleptocratic dictatorial exploitation of the civilpopulation werethe communists which thenbecamebrutalised inhumanemonstrousand their leadershipbecamecleptocratic and cheaty hypocriticalwhile the economy sucks in how they generate valueand chain thepopulationbut it was more an interest balance over ideology lies not cheaply over buddy system liesidonot know enough itisalways about themoney or controlstability is goodcriminal wars not
ispeakformyself ispeculate ihavenostakeorinterestinthatmatter
////
iiiii suspected theonlything #putin truly fears r e a l l y fears. is. …. ….m a r g e s i m p s o n ortherussiangloballyabsolutelyequalversionmatrushkasimpsooooy thiswar is criminal and a mistake
greetings
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #british #taurus
eu the cruisemissileweapon as much itis hyped is very very limited firepower despite its precision
thismeans youneed alot ofthem to matter
many willget intercepted
but i f they hit
usually static highquality targets the targets get destroyed mostly buildings
they are not well usable against single artillerysystems but on ammo dumps and communicationcenters airports depots interdiction details like transport equipment
the german resentment to supply these toukraine is prevention of missioncreep wardrift ukraine does what ukraine must but itmustnot involve personnel of nato or germans inthe direct and indirect matter of attacking
this is likely inthe asumptionof gamechanging weaponry which itis not
itis a realistic risk for a limited firepower matter but w a y too problematised
the real issue is that it scares russia in agony and that
#keypoint peace deal with russia musthave solution at core to w h y theythink theyhadno choice havenochoice backtothewall sacrificed somany lives
which has
implications on what they must keep to justify the losses
whichthe west will hardly allow
solution oriented to why allin backtothewall down to allthe agonyof losses
////
#vp ! vp!!!!! and #potus ! .@vp @potus .@kamalaharris #independent #notmywar #on #allyouneed #about #russia_right_now .@secblinken @statedept @speakerryan .@speakerpelosi .@speakerboehner
russia is in agony on horrid losses and needs peace but the link to the leadership is where the link requires that what they must lead to internally to be even r e s p e c t e d: with the crude strength and dominance.
this is why you recieve signals of rejecting peace and why you misinterpret the anytrick that works to stir up west
and what turkey maybe can negotiate with their
relateability to dominance serobullshit
.@kremlinrussia_e .@rosatom @kremlinrussia_e #horta! there?can? be? no?appeasement?by?how?west?keeps?its?own?bunch?together. asmuchasyouneed donbas tojustify a criminal war. a mistake war.u n d e r s t o o d ?!
(ispeakformyselfispeculateihavenointerestorstakeinthatwar)
////
#independent #notmywar #on #british #taurus #ringswap
.@spd_de .@cdu .@fdp @die_gruenen
#ringtausch
das ist vielzu wenig feuerkraft als dass es ins gewicht faellt aber esist reichweiten praezision fuer bestimmte hochwertige ziele. eskann den russen probleme machen im front aufbau front nachschub und hochqualitative ziele wieplanungsstab kommunikation
aber es ist viel viel viel vielzuwenig feuerkraft als dasses eine hauptwaffe ist
die britische notloesung ist
lausig weildas schonlaengst haette geliefert werden sollen
entweder der westen hilft
oder der westen hilft nicht
die loesung strategisch ist russland braucht frieden kann nicht inder ukraine bleiben damit aber putinbleibt braucht der donbas waehrend appeasement nicht moeglich ist und gut so.
das russische rueckenzurwand all in wieso ist der kernpunkt einer sicherheitsstruktur europas die das was der will nicht belohnen und nicht ermoeglichen kann
/////
#reframed brits mayhave hyped stormshadow and once used ukraine wouldbe sobered after the effects vs what they must holdout everyday #independent #notmywar #on #taurus #stormshadow #scalp #tomahawk
///
these weapons are designed for mediumrange interdiction strikes and highquality clusters. thismeans that breaking supply lines depots airports special locations command centers telecommunication systems is their main capability on usually static targets and infrastructure installations
#keypoint
they can take somewhat pressure off the frontlines but they donot turn the tide
theyare very valuable and many antiair defense systems are specialised intheir interception whichmeans a certainpercentage ofthefirepower willbe blunted
#keypoint
the question of loss of which highquality material can make a difference aswellas which supplies donot makeit through leads to likely ammo dump targetting and infrastructure for supplies slowdown
ifthere is no change of tide operatively and tactically but likely mitigationof pressure on ukraine. depends onthe number. strategically the numbers mustbe alot more significant but strategically itis untouchable russia and warproduction within russia
is it a highquality material targetting system
in small or insufficient numbers
/////
#independent #notmywar #on
#digress #digression
depends onthe choices of ukraine artillery they wouldhave or mayhave lost more or fewer : when ammo is theproblem the systems are safe?
#independent #notmywar #on #armssupplies #ukraine #peace
russia s putin is afraid ofmore losses as selfdanger and therefore each arms supply. itis critical to reduce arms to ukraine to achieve goals withless losses: morelosses is the danger. the path to peace is this #critical point of what no other choice backtothewall lastresort all in effort war because of what vs which losses and howto achieve which goals:
itis precisely the what for all in effort
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #putin #has #had #enough
#keypoint #reframed putin. has. had. enough. toomany.losses. he needs donbas. now itis facesaving which terms towards which geostrategic goals. is.this. understood
the consequence now is cynicwest killmore russians to regime change
or:
////
#independent #notmywar #on #101
when germany s baerbock is vodka invited itis reachout for pragmatic deal separate from the usa but she nerdy sloganed it away too. incase youdonotknow basics of handling themess:
with russia best dealt with is making p r a g m a t i c facts t o w a r d s w h a t and enfocing them constantly testedornot incontrary to appeasement and chickengame
bestway to deal with west is making dirty deals quibono but for longterm stability for which critical values and gain incontrary to assume weakness. itis devious less crude it must dance around specific values but is as devious and hypocritical inmanyways and exploitive
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #where #does #ukraine #belong #to
the only real integration of ukraine in eu is not faking it west but as its core existence of being a half russian country and t
h
e
n
it gets tricky
that is the difference the hypocrisy willnot aid
itislike someone tries to get rich onthem then
with goodenough thenquickly peg nato on it
idddddddiocy
the integration
of
a
half russian country
in
eu
and west
against the will of russia
all in war russia
(!)
//////
#independent #notmywar #on #backchannel #and #diplo #access #to #putin
#reframed towards which geostrategic (!)goal with highprobability based on (!) soviets vs usa paradigms does #putin (!)s a c r i f i c e s (thinks he hasno other choice (incotrary to monstrousonly) but to conquer ukraine) parts of his populations
while stalinism grip on own society for power preservation misassumed different russians (failed in neostalinism already)
////
befree tocompare it withyour analysis and their propaganda
#independent #notmywar #on #backchannel #and #diplo #access #to #putin
#keypoint with the axiom of negotiations t e r m s and conditions set by who in contrary to dictated towards enabling which geostrategic options there on : in contrary to:
reality bites this isnot usa vs soviets mighty you mightythem itis unstable rattled disintegrated usa vs china and a northkorean shade of the former soviet empire of whose power was intersoviet t r a d e
#keypoint
reality bites on elderly leadership terms and conditions towards w h a t : where no appeasement is possible and russia m u s t getoutof ukraine ranaway from russian realm : towards finlandisation before 2020 atleast nonnuclear milparity
or
feeding soviet vs usa paradigm shitballs towards which strategic goals not achievable : until a coupdetat changes leadership after toomany russians died
and a tragedy itis a very very very very bad and tragic thing this is: for which russian interests is #critical : ifthese russian interests arebased on false paradigms
p
h
e
w
#independent #notmywar #on #subject #topic
: ispeak formyself ispeculate ihavenostakeinthiswar
////
#independent #notmywar #on #diplo #ukraine #solution
the solution to #ukrainewar is besides russia outof allukraine : which are the earlyon paradigms why ukraine couldbe west conquerred west chained west integrated how. that what wouldhappen and foremost (!) #keypoint inwhich relation to russia would then what: assumptions
right this. early on. likely 90s. maybe early2000s . internal paradigms. about ukraine: are: and were these questioned at all!?
#independent #notmywar #on #wardrift #missioncreep #europe #in #ukraine #war
#reframed containment policy had always its proxywars and hotspots situationally but itwasnot to drift into eachother direct conflict: #keypoint your effort isnot this rightnow. you drift into war. isthis intent or were some proven principles forgotten/notapplicable today?
#potus .@potus .@vp #borrell this warmess and the basis of security has been: stay on yourside of thelawn. and this was the critical basis for #peace. to russia west is on theirside of their own lawn. what ukraine wants is paramount notwhat russia wants and there on. you guardyour own lawn and aid ukraine but youdonot dropdown in lets make war
#independent #notmywar #on #europe #in #ukraine #war
#borell
#keypoint
handleit by necessity
what arms supplies are necessary
war drift direct involvement is not
#keypoint
find tweaks how the socioeconomic system can integrate the armed forces burdens for peace through strength policies while preserving the shining glare comparative advantages of west especially ifyoufeel at power competititon : which system tweaks must and c a n carrythis they did. halfofcoldwar.
////
#independent #notmywar #on #europe #in #ukraine #war
elderly decisionmakers wisdom is not appeasement to monsters and not drift into war. efforted. #keypoint warning itseems like hotheaded missioncreep
get
out
of
the
bunker and gain distance tothe war but deliver ukraine all it needs
#keypoint missioncreep warcreep war drift youare in it
get. out. of. war entanglements. boost ukraine while your action is
a
w
a
y
from the mess
not deeper into war you i d d d d d d d d d dd d d d di o t s
itis a shame whatyoudo withukraine meager support
all arms yousupply kill another halfmillion russians
youcan dothat itis their bad decision to invade ukraine
but whatyoudonot do is drift into direct conflict
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #ammo
the forcemultipliers like stoplock initiative artillery systems with their limited range and antitank precision (letalone antipersonnel) may be nolonger a forcemultiplier once they are endangered or ineffective
as wellas mining systems once these are endangered.
#keypoint along long frontlines breakthroughs occur then with armored mobility
but with stoplocks itis static warfare
the senseless sacrifices of lives in such static grinding warfare then as ifit hastobe thatway is cynic
#keypoint itis hardtotell if surviveable effective and highsortierate cas is surviveable and effective enough after a certain point it becomes a numbers game for initiative
itis a critical forcemultiplier unless blunted by
#keypoint what
forinstance waited toolong to be effective requires highernumbers to be effective
simple
////
behappy if the analysis is precise and thetruth
#independent #notmywar #on #navalny
itis fairly obvious he(navalny) is a tool of western inteloperations which is a result of prosecution as snowden is a tool of russian intel as a result ofprosecution
the endof navalny maybe related to who the russians lost in an ilyushin shotdown prisonor exchange someone very deep musthave perished inthatincident
if this is as deep intelgaming as i suspect itis
these may be related actions
ispeculate
ispeakformyself
ihavenostakeorinterest inthatwar and trouble
who?did?the?russians?lose? inthat aircraft
as axiom as basis of this speculation
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine
#keypoint doyou want to repeat african colonialism consequences forever wars in criminal border and map making
just with…
a half russian country
there can be no appeasement of dictators letalone for dirtymotives like zones of succumb but the question is
#keypoint does ukraine belong into the west and west only. and is that its path conquerred by who precisely who didnot understand what is messed with that itbecame open all in war with which all in effort:
then thereis the timing
not ten years since restabilised russia after a decade in chaos and crime : why is russia even there why is the west even there
#keypoint youmix ideology motives with geostratic securityinterests and organically grown society structures : is it like african colonialism a forever war risk with botched idiocy like map making and zones of succumb bufferzones as if other areas like nordics russia would need that
why is russia even there its donbas heavy its zones of succumb its surrounded by who and territorial i n f l u e n c e
why is west eventhere agriculturalcolony preyedoff of
there mustbe no appeasement and mapmaking bullshit but why isrussia even there expending half amillionofitspopulation
why is west eventhere
////
#reframed you handle russia with back tothewall putin presidency regime with back tothe wall with all consequences and the afterwards not wahtyoumaywish for. .@potus .@vp @vp @potus #independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #war
#potus #vp dothis diplomove:
to turkey as intermediary the russia efforts to make peace need peace cannot even seem as that. noteven the appeal of needing: “before we give ukraine a new serious load of arms: this is what you should and could do towards peace:” anything else there on
ifyou aim for regime change other details apply
////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #war
curiousity: who convinced em cas is not so useful not sogood : that canbe a mistake or priorities with lackofmoreimportantnecessities. but ifthat what else instead was flimsy shxit: hmmm
luckily notmywar notmy generals and the horror they handle everyday
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #war #and #putin aw?#ukraine #nato for heavens sake ask your generals what itmeans whenyouget more artillery ammo but the adversary has surviveable effective cas (#keypoint #critical the role of forcemultipliers (!)changing when)
as of #putin the assumption of regime change is overrated: what will cause or endanger his rule is: (!)#keypoint does he sacrifice russians in russias interest ornot
itisnot alltight grip on a changed society where stalinism willnot function while surrounded by sharks and eliminating or controlling them:
itis sacrifice russians for russias interest or not: this critical anklepoint west doesnot understand
////
#taurus ? ach itis about political prevention of warcreep missioncreep war drift or slide into more direct conflict thatisallabout taurus fornow #independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #frontline .@nato @otan
.@msc @msc @profklausschwab .@profklausschwab .@nato @otan @nato @peace .@eu_commission @eu_commission .@eucouncil @eucouncil .@euparl_en @euparl_dk .@poland .@gchq .@nsagov .@rosatom
.@joebiden .@gop .@dnc
.@peace .@nato .@ukraine .@otan .@msc .@us_stratcom @us_stratcom .@bbcr4 .@bbcradio4 .@pacificsubs @pacificsubs .@ussocom @ussocom .@gchq .@nsagov .@odnigov .@atom .@iaeaorg .@energy
when #frogfoot variants are surviveable and effective the next failing falling parts are artillery stoplocks no ammo shortage fix then will turnthe tide
there is a battlefield hierarchy of forcemultipliers
and the systems that prevent effectivity and survivability
while politicians decide clumsily heavyhanded and soldiers fight with what they get thebest theycan ortheonly way theyknow how
#independent #notmywar #on #russia #putin #ukraine #warcauses #goal_outcome_of_the_war
russia sacrifices half amillion of its population in an all in and may a s s u m e that the original c a u s e s of war donot change. and this is a mistake. letalone if they dothis as pressure campaign if conquest of terrain is clearly ineffective especiallywith the lossrate
aiming for a space bang as escalationstep is helplessness too:
#keypoint the causes of the war changed for who when
ofcourse tactically youcan argue if survivability of small protected decentralised groundsupport cells for jets matter or protected clusters at one spot
but itis not quite the core of solving the matter
/////
#independent #notmywar #on #f16 #independent #notmywar #on #thesubject #thetopic #ukrainian_f16 #apache #ka50 #ka52 #su24 #s400 #s300 #s500
tactically the most underrated element besides the surviveablity against airdefenses in frontlineproximity atwhich altitude tobe effective is
the realtime precise location and targetting of d y n a m i c battlefield targets tobe effective in initiatives
itisnot trivial how quickly how precisely that rightthtere gets to an aircover while all assume drones can dothat hunting that menace as the static stoplocksystems the forcemultipliers without aircover
if they botch or meager these or arejustnotsurviveable onfrontlineproximity they handlethe single most gamechanging battlefield element as a sucker doom gig : those who kept these away are not friends of the grunt
the other side likely tried these but cannot get near enough tobe effective enough which amplified the forcemultipliers that mattered more during abscenceof airpower
v e r i f y
you have the paid generals
#independent #notmywar #on #thesubject #thetopic #f16 #apache #ka50 #ka52 #su24 #s400 #s300 #s500
if a cluster fuck of s400 s500 dives down from space ballistic curves or directly itis not so trivial how these airborne assets survive
onlow altitude a sam from anywhere evenmore
itisnot trivial but ifthey are effective and foremost surviveable they change the battlefield
v
e
r
i
f
y
////
#reframed fromwhen on dothe original causes(ofthewar)donot matter anylonger which determines the goals. while appeasement isnotpossible and the solution thereon is what:
#keypoint dothe original causes still matter: ohreally?!..
useful tounite west from the before. if the before causes (ofwar)are lessrelevant means the solution is more variable. which russia maynotknow #independent #on #russia #war
///
because putin russia aimed for a security arrangement of zones of succumb over efforts onthe security givers it tried the usa likely when. which can only dismiss appease sleazy dictatorships . thenthe efforts were likely onthe proximity actors securitytakers to make some arrangement against the securityprovider whichthey rejected too. then a last resort war occured with waited toolong and intel prepared onthat war there on managed catastrophy doubled down all in war. then: behold: the solution to ukraine is from russias view sellout ukraine to west with natomembership. an abysmally enfuriating move.
#keypoint
but the core is how russia games for zone of succumb cannot be allowed by this in anyway and how the mess theymake as ifits a sleazy caucasian republic its ownbackyard mustnot be mixed into nato stability because ukraine wilnotbe stable. the broken status quo of near abroad islikely a food colony conquest and the game is control over nations for whos gain : b e f o r e apocalyptic wars
////
because. some. things. are. alot.more. severe. than. you. is why. you. take.back. your. ego.now. that guy invented the electric toiletpaper has to say about your #nato #ukraine #russia #war shxit:
////
someone drives you non nato preserving to hysteric and some gop candidate was extremelynot helpful at the worst moment but whos theleader #potus #vp #nato #emmanuelmacron #richisunak
potus vp you need
to design right now
#keypoint a set of trust building measures
and guarantees
and then rigorously follow through onthem
the only way to restore safety
security
////
at this point a masterpiece of analysis(nipple self lube) behold: verify critically: #independent #notmywar #on #russia
.@eu_commission @eu_commission .@eucouncil @eucouncil .@euparl_en @euparl_dk .@poland .@gchq .@nsagov .@rosatom
.@joebiden .@gop .@dnc
.@peace .@nato .@ukraine .@otan .@msc .@us_stratcom @us_stratcom .@bbcr4 .@bbcradio4 .@pacificsubs @pacificsubs .@ussocom @ussocom .@gchq .@nsagov .@odnigov .@atom .@iaeaorg .@energy
the high losses of russian lives in intel cynically viewed as not sustainable and backfiring domestically is the false lesson
#keypoint it does show how serious russia is about this issue of not letting ukraine defect or sold out tothe west in harm of russian interests
the
c o n s e q u e n c e s however
#keypoint
a broken diminished russia not recovered for decades after
or and a regime changed unstable version ofthis
leastlikely forcing the west to something very very very very specific with the nuclear option which is in contrary to which triggers: highlosses it isnot
that the option is offthe table was an effort by rational minds but themore died themore somethingspecific about this risk increases
thisis not now but the core the x marks the spot of the issue is the w h y the extreme losses thatwhy can trigger more
without that more itis simply a broken meager leftover russia after the campaign in stalinism control which russians
will
likely
r
e
j
e
c
t
#keypoint
this is an unstable modern russia about a trigger around a sharkpool around a leader trying to controlthis with (!)flawed stalinism paradigma not funcitoning inthe 1970s already in neostalinism
but
this
way to control russia not functionin
happens in
#keypoint managing a catastrophy and within a war
itis
e
x
t
r
e
m
e
l
y
unstable
fragile
and lives from
poland being more scared thanitshould
all noise behind a tree inthe woods at night
itis the flesh eating horror plant youve dreamt of
#keypoint the precise situation is n o t what youthink itis while
#critical #keypoint american allies dissolve accidentally nato already in the utter mistrust of the american word
you.
stumble
in
false
fears
about the false
critical keypoints
/////
#eu_commission #eucouncil #euparliament #your #ukraine #frontline #101 #requirements #independent #notmywar #ukraine
ukraine needs specific long frontline interdiction details around surviveable effective highsortierate/stayingpower forcemultipliers themorethebetter. letalone parity matching of paritysystems of which is a losing game but without forcemultipliers the mainstay
russia needs peace around the specific pragmatic basics without appeasement of dictatorship and no natomembership
what happens l i k e l y is that russia does right that which ukraine needs and west hampers the parity hesitation while their arms industry give them terrorweapons shxit of ineffective cost increase per firepower lossrate without tactical or operational or strategic shiftpossible
inthe meantime the baltics and poland suspect hitlerputin is one day from invading them
#keypoint even on regime change as goal the underlying problems of why russia sacrifices half a million of itspopulation in a managed catastrophy are the same but worsened
////
#classification #of #this #thinkank #disclosure : ispeakformyself ihavenointerestorstakeinthatwar
tisunderstood youtickby s i d e s t a k i n g : this. #independent #notmywar is about p r e c i s i o n for the right decisions. independent has to say about that subject about that topic:
vulnerable civillian orange icebreaker with nuclear nipples in on andor about it
andor awacs synthetic aperture scan and early warning
nocreamy inbetween
itis understood sometimes itis thatgood youwant tomarry it and have children with it
and on inconvenient things like hightreason of someone that joined you. but. didnt
apply the scale of:
trusted
trusted enough (fornow)
oh oh oh oh caution with thatguy
b l a h
////
itisnot so trivial howmany dead russians the next western aid packages will cause outof w e s t e r n necessity todefendukraine but #why russia sacrifices their population : and wayout:
#scared #baltics #scared_poland #peace #right_you #independent #notmywar #on #russia #in #war
#keypoint this russian war is a (!)#critical back tothe wall last resort war. the path to pragmatic status quo s locked. this is #why #w #h #y russia sacrificed half a million lives todate +-1year mess ahead
#keypoint with the back to thewall (metaphoric expression) type of wars while rattle the cage in a n y w a y they e v e r can and could and will and the all_in declinated from this.
a managed catastrophy while surrounded by sharks a n d no appeasement possible:
#keypoint which solutions with ukraine as tradegate to russia too/ no nato membership / atleast nonnuclear mil parity of ukraine against nuclear russia and possible nato membership as l a t e r escalation security detail at backhand not to secure now a part of ukraine intomess
this path
////
#independent #notmywar #on #frontline #ukraine #strategy
lisa simpson grabs the hand of teacher for an a- and hurts her: #joebiden ? really. l o n g line vastness frontline interdiction is a verydifferent game than what you simulate. putin needs peace butmust communciated shark surrounded as: collossalvoictory because halfamillionrussians sacrificed
////
is that bad. #independent #notmywar #on #ukraine #simulations
the most important simulation ukraine could do is:
supercharge surviveable effective highsortierate/stayifgpower forcemultipliers with s e n s o r s
or
howmany drones (more or less effective terrorweapon) costs howmany ressources for which gain letalone initiative letalone turntide
the arms industry is clear by price advantage but inthe warfare itmaybe a verydifferent game
////
ispeakformyself ihavenointerestorstakeinthiswar #independent #on #that #subject #topic : handle it as orange civillian icebreaker with nuclear nipples on in about it andor awacs aperture scan and earlywarning
////
undersupplied meager ukrainesupport sacrificed half a million russians. it is. alot worse. than it seems. to both sides. and the s e r i o u s support didnot start yet for various reasons #independent #not #my #war #on #frontline #ukraine .@peace .@nato .@ukraine .@otan .@msc .@us_stratcom @us_stratcom .@bbcr4 .@bbcradio4 .@pacificsubs @pacificsubs .@ussocom @ussocom .@gchq .@nsagov .@odnigov .@atom .@iaeaorg .@energy
the axiom is parity kills and the lackof parity even kills evenmore: they struggle for artillery stoplocks in static mined warfare trenchwarfare onlack of criticalforcemultipliers
#keypoint surviveable effective highsortierate/stayingpower forcemultipliers on v a s t terrain evenmore blunting the lead systems of effectivity ofthe adversary the breaking of what slows own troops is the xmarksthespot criticality ukraine needs
#keypoint the more theylack of material themore effective surviveable forcemultipliers are critical
theproblem is they kill russians alot of russians and each lost life is a catastrophy
russia is all in but even iftheywil they willnot recover for decades themorethe ukraine does what itmust to win
the better way is peace without appeasement b e f o r e forcemultipliers arefielded and iftheir generals are a shred of capable they will field it
tome it seems they ambiguity wrestle with terrorweapon losses like drones but have no substantial firepower gamechanging tide turning initiative creating forcemultipliers atall while struggle to match even the losing game of parity
#axiom : metaphorically it may be a ukrainian pimple weapon but with alot of gimmicks on it vs a big weapon what itmust it will and superior to most and anything while whereit sucks is gladly sacrificed bloodily as a bad opponent choice but thatseems tobe the game
////
#independent #not #my #war #on #irresponsible #leadership
#example #prighozhin: when russians d i e in war duress the pressure is relayed without endangering dictator goal. #wagner #boss yelling at aeh aeh aeh ammonition supplies and aeh inconvenient generals is not what west assumes. helived his dream for and with putin as his special solider. howtofind dissent? brewing everyone /////
in the geopolitical game of nations where presidencies and countries are bought and sold and revolutions by colors expended inthisgame
someone
tried to conquer ukraine to west
likely as empoverished agricultural colony
isuspected lukoil jewish networks covert quarrel with putins russia joining this effort
or daring this effort
where west fellapart in instability
trying to setup against china noone following the us why would andshould they and wars unthinkable
trade network dependencies
someone in this used the chance to unite west setit up against china and russia useful inthis
and ukraine in this as empoverished agricultural colony
: but whoever did this underestimated how all in by russia means severity and the onthe cheap conquest by color revolutions and russia accepting it longago failed but does now not pay the warbill
by far not
itmust be about food production not for its donbas steel which russia needs desperately
thereon any sleazy sleazy sleazy dictatorship move by putin only confirmed how west unites against that and turns russia into northkorea whichr ussia anticipated and didnotallow mostly with china
and of a sudden
this is now
west is weak
disrespected from south
hesitant topay war bills
russia with blood red eyes agony managed catastrophy needs peace but cannot even s e e m weak as it sacrificed somany and putinmaynot even understand how badly the wars w e a k e n e drussia evenin stalinism times for decades despite propaganda and (!)communismtrade network russia on top giving it some leverage and industry still yet heavyindustries ressource based before machines were turned smart outpacing commies
it can be a prestep to alot worse while russia isalotmore fragile than allthink and the path to peace is what west cannot allow about appeasement of a dictator and what putin tries to fake that itis percieved as victory while surrounded by sharks handling a c a t a s t r o p h y
but will always be convincing all goes byplan anyday
what a luck with him thentoo
if there is a path to peace itis along the realdeal icebreaker path here or awacs aperture earlywarning thunderstorms mess ahead
I am Christian KISS
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